Breaking News Ukr War: Russian Su-35 Shot Down in Kursk, Russia; What This Could Mean
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Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:09⏩
- Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics video, presenting a "Ukraine War Breaking News Update".
- He explains that while the news was briefly mentioned in his "Hits and Losses" video, he felt it warranted a separate, more detailed analysis due to its significant ramifications.
Russian Su-35 Shot Down in Kursk Oblast
🎦 00:09-00:26⏩
- The Ukrainian Air Force successfully shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet in the Kursk direction.
- This incident was deemed significant enough by Jonathan to warrant a dedicated video due to its potential implications.
Confirmation and Details of the Su-35 Shootdown
🎦 00:28-01:04⏩
- Video evidence of the shootdown exists, presumed to be from a Ukrainian drone, as Russia would not release such embarrassing footage.
- According to 'Fighter Bomber', a reliable Russian aviation source, the pilot ejected and was rescued.
- The burning wreckage of the Su-35 has been confirmed in Kursk, following a statement from the Air Force of Ukraine on the morning of 7th June 2025.
Capabilities and Role of the Su-35
🎦 01:06-02:00⏩
- The Su-35, known as a 'Super Flanker' by NATO, is a 4.5 generation multi-role and air superiority fighter.
- Designed by the Sukhoi Design Bureau, it is highly manoeuvrable, twin-engined, and single-seated.
- It serves as a stopgap to the Su-57, which has not seen much action in the Ukraine war.
Location and Significance of the Shootdown
🎦 02:00-02:40⏩
- Jonathan questioned how the footage of the shootdown was released and the specific method of engagement.
- Special Kherson Cat commented on the incident, suggesting potential political ramifications regarding future Russian strikes.
- Jonathan emphasised the critical importance of the Su-35 being shot down over Russian territory, specifically deep within the Kursk region, rather than in Ukrainian-occupied areas.
Speculation on Weapon System Used (Patriot/F-16)
🎦 02:41-03:05⏩
- There is uncertainty regarding what weapon system was used to shoot down the Su-35.
- Ukraine Battle Map suggested it could have been a Net-16 or a Patriot system. Jonathan referenced past instances of Su-35 losses from Wikipedia to explore possibilities.
Previous Russian Su-35 Losses
🎦 03:08-04:12⏩
- Jonathan detailed previous confirmed Su-35 losses:
- April 2022: Shot down by Ukrainian forces near Izium (pilot ejected).
- July 2022: Claimed near Kharkovka (confirmed with photos in February 2023).
- May 2023: A MIM-104 Patriot missile shot down a Su-35 over Bryansk.
- He noted that the May 2023 incident over Bryansk, similar to the current one in Kursk, indicated previous instances of Russian jets being shot down deep inside Russian territory by Ukrainian air defence systems.
Location of Crash Site: Yurisovoy, Kursk Oblast
🎦 04:12-05:27⏩
- Although precise details are still emerging, some reports, including from 'AV vector', stated the Su-35 crashed near the village of Yurisovoy in Kursk Oblast.
- Jonathan highlighted that Yurisovoy is approximately 160 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, which is a significant distance.
- If a ground-based air defence system was used, it implies Ukraine is deploying such systems much further forward, or it was an F-16 operating at range.
Debate: Patriot System vs. F-16
🎦 05:27-06:39⏩
- There are conflicting claims regarding the weapon system:
- 'Volgolad' reported, citing Russian sources, that Ukraine deployed a Patriot battery in the Sumy region to counter Russian aerial bomb attacks, and this battery is believed to be responsible for the Su-35 shootdown.
- 'Fighter Bomber' (via Sucomimus) stated the Su-35 was shot down in an air battle by an F-16, implying a beyond-visual-range engagement.
- Jonathan highlighted that regardless of the method, both scenarios are incredibly significant.
- He noted that overall, Russia has lost more than five Su-35s since the war began, with some sources suggesting up to eight, due to friendly fire, crashes, or Ukrainian forces.
Strategic Implications for Russian and Ukrainian Air Operations
🎦 06:39-08:17⏩
- Jonathan emphasised that this shootdown, regardless of the weapon used, will significantly impact Russian air operations.
- Russia will likely become more cautious in using its aviation to support troops attacking areas like Sumy.
- Conversely, Ukrainians are demonstrating increasing courage and risk-taking in their use of air support for their troops operating inside Russia, such as in Tekkino.
Erosion of Russian Air Superiority and Implications for Ukraine's Air Power
🎦 08:18-09:57⏩
- Jonathan highlighted Igor Sushko's poignant observation: "Russia doesn't have aerial superiority over its own airspace."
- This incident, coupled with Ukrainian air advantage over Tekkino, suggests Ukraine now has some form of air advantage over Kursk, 160km deep into Russia.
- Jonathan raised crucial questions:
- Are Swedish Saab radar planes (AEW&C) being used to link air assets and improve target acquisition for Ukraine's F-16s?
- What missiles are the F-16s carrying that allow them to hit Russian planes at such ranges?
- How close to the border was the Ukrainian F-16 flying?
- What does this imply about the state of Russian air defences, which Jonathan has noted have been consistently degraded since May 2023?
Tactical Advantages for Ukraine's Air Force
🎦 09:58-11:19⏩
- The degradation of Russian air defence systems is allowing Ukrainian jets to advance further and operate with greater risk.
- Ukrainian pilots are employing coordinated tactics, with some jets suppressing air defences using HARM anti-radiation missiles, while others engage targets or aerial threats like the Su-35.
- Jonathan views this event as a potential reflection of a "slight shift in the dynamics in the air" between the two nations, akin to the impact of guided bombs from the US and France.
Concluding Thoughts and Call to Action
🎦 11:19-12:06⏩
- Jonathan asked for viewers' opinions on the significance of this event.
- He stressed the importance of verifying the accuracy of claims, particularly regarding the jet's location and flight path, acknowledging the many unknowns.
- Despite the uncertainties, he believes the incident is genuinely significant and has far-reaching ramifications beyond a simple frontline shootdown.
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