Ukraine Conflict: Full Frontline Update
Table of Contents 📖
"North Korean troops are a game changer for Russia, depending on how many they can get. They’ve suddenly got access to 100,000 troops that they can throw into what is already meat grinder attacks anywhere."
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:23⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to a frontline update covering the past 2-3 days of the Ukraine conflict. He acknowledges that the information is already slightly outdated but highlights the importance of understanding the evolving situation.
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📍 FRONT-LINE UPDATE -🗺️ MAP LEGEND
Zelensky: No Territory Concessions
🎦 00:23-00:41⏩
Jonathan opens by mentioning Zelensky's statement that Ukraine will not cede territory regardless of the US election outcome. He finds this intriguing, given the ongoing Russian offensive.
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October Territorial Changes: An Overview (Poulet-Velon Map)
🎦 00:41-02:17⏩
Jonathan uses a map by French mapper Poulet-Velon to illustrate Russian and LPR/DPR territorial gains during October. He breaks down the map into three main sections:
- Luhansk Oblast: Significant Russian advances, particularly towards the Oskil River.
- Donetsk Oblast (North): Smaller but consistent Russian gains, particularly around Sviatohirsk-Bakhmut-Donetsk.
- Donetsk Oblast (South): More substantial Russian gains, including areas around Vuhledar.
Jonathan notes that while losing territory up to the Oskil River might not be strategically critical for Ukraine, it strengthens Russia's negotiating position. He seems more concerned about the capture of cities in southern Donetsk Oblast, which have economic and symbolic value.
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Kursk Front: Relatively Stable
🎦 02:17-02:58⏩
Shifting to the Kursk front, Jonathan observes relative stability. He mentions a discrepancy between Suret Maps and his own assessment, attributing it to Suret Maps potentially marking minor frontline shifts along marginal lines.
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Zhurilevka and Nekotivka: Ukrainian Advances and Russian Supply Line Threats
🎦 02:58-05:32⏩
Jonathan discusses the situation near Zhurilevka and Nekotivka, west of the previous Russian offensive towards Lyptsi-Kharkiv.
- Ukrainian Advances: He cites reports from Intel Schizo about Ukrainian forces engaging in "positional skirmishes" in these areas.
- Threats to Russian Supply Lines: These advances could potentially threaten a key Russian supply road and rail line supporting the Lyptsi sector.
- Conflicting Information: Jonathan notes differing accounts regarding the extent of Ukrainian presence in Zhurilevka, with Intel Schizo suggesting presence within the town while Gik (from Andrew Perpetua's team) claims Ukrainians are only present in the surrounding forest.
- Geolocation Evidence: He analyzes geolocation data of shelling in the area, indicating that Ukrainians are at least operating in the forest and potentially pushing the Russian defensive line further back.
Northeastern Luhansk Oblast: Significant Russian Gains
🎦 05:32-07:47⏩
Jonathan focuses on the northeastern section of the Luhansk Oblast front, where Suret Maps indicates substantial Russian advances. He uses the 3D mode on the map to analyze the terrain, pointing out the challenges posed by the Oskil River and the elevated western bank, which favors the Russians defensively. He quickly lists the areas where Russians are making gains, expressing concern over the scale of these advances.
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Svatove-Kreminna Line: Minor Russian Gains, Ukrainian Resistance Near Torsk
🎦 07:47-08:38⏩
Moving down the line, Jonathan points out minor Russian gains near Svatove and Kreminna. However, he highlights Ukrainian resistance near Torsk, where the Zherebets River creates a natural obstacle.
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Siversk Front and Chasiv Yar: Discrepancies in Mapping and Ukrainian Counterattacks in Turetsk
🎦 08:38-09:58⏩
- Siversk Front: Jonathan mentions Russian gains but emphasizes significant discrepancies between Suret Maps and other sources, particularly regarding the situation around Chasiv Yar.
- Chasiv Yar: He believes Ukrainian defenses around Chasiv Yar are holding strong.
- Turetsk: Jonathan cites reports from Greyskull and Andrew Perpetua that indicate Ukrainian counterattacks are pushing back Russian forces in Turetsk.
Southeastern Donetsk Oblast: Relentless Russian Advance, Concerns over Ukrainian Defensive Lines
🎦 09:58-11:41⏩
Jonathan expresses deep concern about the relentless Russian advance in the southeastern corner of Donetsk Oblast, particularly towards Vuhledar. He observes that Russian forces are steadily gaining ground and mentions reports of Ukrainians pulling back from Kurekivka. He points out that Russian gains in this area are consistent across both pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian maps. He questions the strength and depth of Ukrainian defensive lines in this sector.
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Krakivka: Russian Capture and Implications for Prokrosk
🎦 11:41-13:22⏩
Jonathan shifts focus to Krakivka, reporting its capture by Russian forces.
- Strategic Importance: He emphasizes Krakivka's strategic significance, highlighting reports from Emil Kastohem that suggest Russian forces are attempting to encircle and force a Ukrainian retreat from the area. He believes a Russian advance to the Kurikivske reservoir would pose a considerable threat.
Intel Schizo: Destroying Bridges in Krakove to Hinder Russian Logistics
🎦 13:22-14:17⏩
Jonathan brings up Intel Schizo's suggestion that Ukraine should destroy bridges and dams over the Vovche River in Krakove.
- Disrupting Logistics: This action is presented as a way to hinder Russian logistics and potentially delay a Russian advance towards Prokrosk.
- Strategic Implications: Jonathan seems to agree with this assessment, noting that disrupting Russian logistical lines could significantly impact their ability to sustain operations in the region.
Emil Kastohem: Russian Advance, Ukrainian Retreat, and Defensive Challenges
🎦 14:17-21:08⏩
Jonathan discusses Emil Kastohem's analysis of the situation, which emphasizes:
- Significant Russian Offensive: The Russians have launched a major offensive along a 70km front in eastern and southern Donetsk Oblast, achieving concerning breakthroughs.
- Two Main Focus Areas: Kastohem identifies the Seledovik-Rakivka area and the region between Shakhtarsk and Bohyavlenka as the primary areas of Russian focus.
- Loss of Key Settlements: Ukraine has likely lost control of Seledove (the largest city captured by Russia since Avdiivka) and Hirnyk.
- Southern Donetsk Advance: Russian forces have advanced 10km in just a few days, capturing significant territory.
- Concerns Over Ukrainian Defenses: Kastohem expresses concern over the vulnerability of Ukrainian defensive lines in this area, stating that there are limited fortified positions beyond the current lines.
- Limited Natural Obstacles: The lack of significant natural obstacles in the region makes it difficult for Ukraine to slow the Russian advance.
- Potential Russian Maneuvers: Kastohem outlines two potential Russian maneuvers, both of which aim to outflank and bypass Ukrainian defensive positions, potentially leading to a collapse in the south.
- Loss of Territory: Emil Kastohem concludes that more Ukrainian territory has been captured in October than in any other single month since the summer of 2022.
Overall Situation and the North Korean Factor
🎦 21:08-22:29⏩
Jonathan provides his summary:
- Challenging Situation: He describes the overall situation, particularly in the southeastern part of the frontline and along the Oskil River, as increasingly challenging for Ukraine.
- Chasiv Yar Under Pressure: He expects continued Russian pressure on Chasiv Yar.
- North Korean Troop Deployment: Jonathan believes the potential deployment of a large number of North Korean troops could be a "game-changer," allowing Russia to maintain its grinding attrition warfare.
Wrap up
🎦 22:29-22:39⏩
Jonathan thanks his viewers, encourages them to take care, and signs off with "Toodle pips."
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