Ukraine War Live Update w/ Jonathan Fink: The Zelenskyy-Trump-Vance White House Aftermath
Table of Contents 📖
"If Europe hits the kind of snooze button tomorrow, we are in big trouble. If we see move towards mobilization by Europe of resources and giving up the idea of a U.S. backstop, because it is not happening, even if that sort of turd festival The third festival hadn't happened in the Oval Office yesterday. The US was not going to provide a military backstop to France and Britain. So we now need to get on with it unilaterally. If we see signs of that tomorrow, it's good. If we don't see signs of action tomorrow, then we could be on a very, very worrying trajectory."
🤖💭 AI Plan (pre task) - the AI's step by step thought process
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:30⏩
- Jonathan Pearce (JP) welcomes viewers to a co-stream with Jonathan Fink (JF), who is travelling and not in his usual studio.
- JP explains this is an impromptu live stream because he has a busy day and is going to a pub quiz later.
- The main topic is the aftermath of Zelenskyy's White House visit and the meeting with Trump and Vance.
Initial Reactions to Zelenskyy-Trump Meeting Fallout
🎦 00:30-02:21⏩
- JP mentions a conversation with Greg Terry and Zhenya regarding the White House meeting fallout.
- Initial reactions show European leaders like Scholz and Orban overtly supporting Zelenskyy.
- Most Ukrainians are also defending Zelenskyy, seeing the criticism as an attack on Ukraine itself.
- In the US, the event is divisive, with an outpouring of pro-Ukraine sentiment and memes across party lines on social media.
Lack of Strategic Thinking and Deeper Perspective
🎦 02:21-04:48⏩
- JF contends that reactions are largely emotional and partisan, lacking strategic depth.
- Few are considering the long-term implications and next steps beyond immediate reactions.
- The underlying reality is that Russia will continue fighting, regardless of the White House meeting.
- Europe needs to increase its support for Ukraine, a fact that remains true irrespective of recent events.
Zelenskyy's Loss of Control and Crisis Communication
🎦 04:48-05:01⏩
- JF suggests Zelenskyy lost control of his emotions during the meeting, which is not advisable from a crisis communications perspective.
- This behaviour might indicate why Zelenskyy "lost it".
Trump's "Istanbul Plan" and Lack of Genuine Peace Plan
🎦 05:01-05:32⏩
- JF asserts that Trump doesn't have a plan for peace, but has adopted the "Istanbul plan", which is Moscow's plan.
- This plan aims to force Ukraine's capitulation, emasculate and isolate it, leaving it vulnerable for future territorial losses.
- Trump's plan is not in Ukraine's best interests.
Zelenskyy's Emotional Response and Justification
🎦 05:32-06:01⏩
- JP agrees with JF that Zelenskyy likely reacted emotionally, but believes it was justified.
- JP argues that a break up was inevitable due to Trump's unacceptable "peace" terms.
Expediting the Inevitable Break and Vance's Role
🎦 06:01-06:42⏩
- JP suggests Zelenskyy's reaction expedited the inevitable break with the US regarding Ukraine policy under a potential Trump administration.
- JP believes this was likely Vance's intention, aligning with Project 2025 isolationist agenda.
- The meeting was perhaps designed to force a quicker confrontation.
Context of Zelenskyy's Anger and Disinformation
🎦 06:42-08:09⏩
- JP highlights the context of Zelenskyy's anger: constant criticism of Ukraine, lies on national television, and Russian disinformation narratives being repeated.
- Zelenskyy was entering a hostile environment after weeks of such attacks.
- Capitulating to this would prolong the inevitable and endorse disinformation.
Zelenskyy's Accidental Loss of Control vs. Strategic Break
🎦 08:09-09:22⏩
- JF dissents slightly, suggesting Zelenskyy didn't intend for the meeting to escalate in the way it did.
- JF thinks it would have been strategically better for Zelenskyy to control the timing and manner of the break.
- JF believes Zelenskyy's loss of control was accidental, while JP sees it as justified.
Language Barrier and Lack of Preparation
🎦 09:22-10:02⏩
- JP points out that English is Zelenskyy's third language, hindering his ability to communicate effectively under pressure.
- This was evident in contrast to his later Fox News interview where he was calmer and had support.
- JF agrees and suggests a translator would have been beneficial in the White House meeting.
KGB Translator Tactic and Lack of Preparation
🎦 10:02-11:07⏩
- JF explains the "KGB translator tactic" – using a translator even when fluent to gain time to think and appear in control.
- Zelenskyy's team likely didn't prepare him for the confrontational setup of the meeting.
Confrontational Setup of the White House Meeting
🎦 11:07-12:16⏩
- JF describes the meeting setup as a "bear pit" with numerous press present, creating a confrontational atmosphere.
- Vance's unusually prominent role in the meeting was also part of this deliberate setup to unbalance and humiliate Zelenskyy.
- All three leaders (Zelenskyy, Trump, Vance) arguably lost their cool.
Debate on Zelenskyy's Handling of the Meeting and Mineral Deal
🎦 12:16-13:32⏩
- A viewer questions JF's perspective that Zelenskyy could have played the meeting better.
- JP believes Zelenskyy might not have been able to handle it differently, especially considering reports that the promised mineral deal was withdrawn.
- Cenk Uygur's report suggests Zelenskyy was informed of the mineral deal change beforehand, potentially unnerving him before the meeting even began, suggesting a pre-planned ambush.
Evidence of a Coordinated Ambush: TASS Presence and Press Exclusion
🎦 13:32-14:08⏩
- The presence of a TASS (Russian state media) correspondent while Associated Press and Reuters were blocked is highlighted as further evidence of a coordinated ambush.
- This suggests Russian influence and control within the White House setup.
The "Suit" Question: A Planted Provocation
🎦 14:08-15:05⏩
- The initial question to Zelenskyy about why he wasn't wearing a suit is identified as a planted provocation.
- This was designed to rile Zelenskyy from the outset and undermine his position.
Historical Context and Hypocrisy of "Suit" Criticism
🎦 15:05-15:31⏩
- JP points out the hypocrisy of the "suit" criticism, noting Churchill famously wore military garb at the White House and Elon Musk wore casual attire without issue.
- This highlights the politically motivated and disingenuous nature of the criticism.
Victim Blaming and Abuse by Trump and Vance
🎦 15:31-16:33⏩
- The "suit" question and overall treatment are seen as designed to rile up Zelenskyy and are part of a MAGA attack strategy.
- JP argues that Trump and Vance's behaviour constitutes victim blaming and abuse towards the leader of a country at war, demonstrating a lack of empathy and morality.
Strategic Failure of Zelenskyy's Team and War-Gaming
🎦 16:33-17:49⏩
- JF and JP agree that Zelenskyy's team failed strategically by not anticipating and preparing for the hostile reception.
- They should have war-gamed various scenarios and prepared Zelenskyy for different approaches by Trump and Vance, including role-playing exercises.
- Zelenskyy's strategic objective to secure the minerals deal was undermined by the meeting's fallout.
Comparison to Lex Fridman Interview and Scripted Events
🎦 17:49-18:11⏩
- JF contrasts the White House meeting with Zelenskyy's successful Lex Fridman interview, where they seemingly war-gamed and scripted the approach to handle shallow questions.
- This suggests a failure of preparation and consultation with Republican mindset experts for the White House visit.
Limited Impact of Better Preparation and Trump's Rudeness
🎦 18:11-19:39⏩
- JP questions whether better preparation would have changed the outcome significantly, given Trump's confrontational style.
- Trump has previously been rude and dismissive to other world leaders, including Macron and Starmer, suggesting a pattern of behaviour.
- Trump's disrespect is not new and is targeted at democratic leaders, while he shows respect for tyrants.
Setup or Orchestrated Setup: Evidence from Former Ambassadors
🎦 19:39-21:14⏩
- JP believes the meeting was either an opportunistic setup or a properly orchestrated one.
- Quotes former British ambassador who called it an "astonishing setup" and highlighted Trump's deep resentment of Zelenskyy.
- Trump doesn't see Zelenskyy as a peer and treats him as an underling, regardless of whether he "likes" him.
Susan Rice's Analysis: Deliberate Setup for Putin
🎦 21:14-23:17⏩
- JP plays audio of former US Ambassador Susan Rice stating unequivocally that the meeting was a setup.
- Rice highlights Vance's unusual interjection and Trump's own words "this is great television" as proof.
- Rice argues it was a play to Trump's base and a show of fealty to Putin.
Larger Puzzle: Trump's Pro-Russia, Pro-China Actions
🎦 23:17-25:04⏩
- JP plays further audio from Susan Rice, who argues the meeting is part of a larger pattern of Trump's actions benefiting Russia and China.
- Examples include threatening Denmark, trade wars with allies, conflict with Canada, Vance undermining NATO, and dismantling USAID and the Department of Defense.
- These actions are not in US national security interests.
Elliot Cohen's View: Calculated Setup, Worse than Chamberlain
🎦 25:04-27:08⏩
- JP plays audio of Elliot Cohen, who also sees it as a setup, likely orchestrated by Vance.
- Cohen compares the disrespectful treatment of Zelenskyy to Neville Chamberlain's more subtle handling of Czechoslovakia's president in Munich 1938.
- Rubio's supportive tweet afterwards is seen as further evidence of complicity.
Trump as Puppet Master and Potential Russian Agent/Asset
🎦 27:08-29:42⏩
- JF disagrees with Cohen giving Trump a "pass" and insists Trump is the "puppet master".
- Vance's actions wouldn't happen without Trump's mandate.
- JF raises questions about Trump's historical connections to Russia, suggesting he may be a Russian agent or asset, driven by unknown factors.
- JP refines this, suggesting "asset" is more likely than "agent", implying manipulation rather than direct instruction from Russia.
Trump's Alignment with Autocrats and Anti-Rule of Law
🎦 29:42-30:29⏩
- JF and JP agree that labels like "agent" or "asset" are less important than the clear alignment of Trump with authoritarianism.
- Trump is against the rule of law, NATO, and the international order, consistently seeking to undermine Ukraine in Russia's interest.
- This was always the plan.
Europe as the Next Target and Need for Action
🎦 30:29-32:12⏩
- Europe is identified as the next target for Trump and the axis of authoritarians.
- The EU, UK, and rules-based order are the main obstacles to Trump and Putin's autocratic world.
- The call to action is to move beyond debate and "arm the f* up", potentially including closing the skies over Ukraine and getting serious.
Trump's Authoritarian Tendencies and Intolerance of Disagreement
🎦 32:12-34:42⏩
- JF highlights Trump's authoritarian style, referencing the Elon Musk cabinet meeting where sycophancy was on full display.
- Trump is not used to public disagreement and dictates how media should report on him.
- Zelenskyy standing up to him was unexpected and contributed to the dynamic of the meeting.
- Adam Bolton's strong criticism of Vance is noted as significant.
Jesse Waters' Kremlin-like View: US as World Controller, Ukraine as Proxy
🎦 34:42-35:14⏩
- JP plays a clip of Jesse Waters (Fox News) expressing a view that aligns with the Kremlin's perspective: "We run the world. This is America's world. He's our proxy. This ends when we say it ends."
- This is seen as a staggering and disturbing example of a gangster mentality in US foreign policy.
Shift from Partnership to Gangster Mentality in US Power Exercise
🎦 35:14-35:48⏩
- JP emphasizes that Waters' comments reflect a complete shift in US power projection, from a partnership approach to a "gangster mentality" under Trump.
- Trump is corrupting the traditional US approach to global power.
Ceasefire Demand and Trump's Nobel Peace Prize Motivation
🎦 35:48-37:04⏩
- The core issue in the Zelenskyy meeting was the demand for a ceasefire.
- Trump's motivation is seen as shallow: wanting a Nobel Peace Prize and the opportunity to make money from both sides once the war stops.
- He lacks understanding of the conflict's complexities or genuine concern for Ukraine's interests.
Just Peace vs. Ceasefire and Security Guarantees
🎦 37:04-38:12⏩
- JP explains Zelenskyy's emphasis on "just peace" and "security guarantees" in his Fox interview.
- "Just peace" means justice for Russia's actions and regaining Ukrainian territory, not just stopping fighting.
- "Security guarantees" are essential to deter future Russian aggression, beyond weak promises.
Trump's Weak Mineral Deal Offer and Lack of Deterrence
🎦 38:12-39:06⏩
- Trump's mineral deal offer is considered far weaker than the Budapest Memorandum and takes resources from Ukraine without providing real security.
- It offers no deterrence to Putin or protection for Ukraine, nor does it reassure European partners.
No Agreements, Only Force and Determination Will Deter Putin
🎦 39:06-40:22⏩
- JF argues that agreements and negotiations are meaningless with Putin.
- Only a show of force and determination will deter him.
- Trump's approach of offering weak deals and ceasefires is ineffective and undermines Ukraine's security.
US Involvement Meaningless if Just Pushing for Surrender
🎦 40:22-42:28⏩
- If the US position is simply to push Ukraine to surrender for a ceasefire without Russian concessions or real guarantees, then US involvement is pointless.
- Any country could negotiate such a bad deal for Ukraine.
- Trump's claim that Putin will listen to him is delusional or disingenuous, as he understands Putin's gangster mindset but likely shares it.
- Trump's focus is extractive and avaricious, respecting only strength.
Europe's Crucial Meeting and Potential Unilateral Actions
🎦 42:28-44:43⏩
- Europe is holding a crucial meeting in London with Zelenskyy, emphasizing European leadership.
- Italy's Meloni suggests a symposium with the US, Europe, and Ukraine, but JF believes unilateral European action is needed instead of prolonging discussions with the US.
- Zelenskyy likely travelled to the UK immediately for serious discussions with European allies after the White House debacle.
Options for Europe: Seizing Russian Assets and Quasi-War Footing
🎦 44:43-47:18⏩
- Two key options for Europe are discussed:
- Seizing the €300 billion in frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine directly.
- Putting European economies on a quasi-war footing, directing industry to prioritize defence production (like France has started).
- These actions are seen as crucial for European security and could also stimulate economies.
- Integration of Ukraine into European security architecture is essential.
EU as Next Target and Need for Strategic Independence
🎦 47:18-50:12⏩
- The EU is the next target for Trump and authoritarians.
- Trump needs to lower prices for his base, potentially through collusion with Russia and Saudi Arabia on oil.
- Economic collapse in the US might be the only way to shift Trump's approach.
- Europe needs to double down on its own defence industry and reject US dependence, echoing warnings from US government scientists.
Potential Economic Repercussions and Trump's Vulnerability
🎦 50:12-52:00⏩
- Trump's actions may cost the US defence industry deals with India and Australia.
- Germany's Foreign Minister Baerbock's strong stance and Scholz's UK visit signal European resolve.
- If US foreign policy hurts US industry and the stock market, Trump may lose popular support and face pressure from industry.
- This economic pressure might be the best way to force a "reality bite" for Trump.
European Nuclear Deterrent and Strategic Reassessment of US Relationship
🎦 52:00-53:20⏩
- Britain should consider co-producing its next generation of Trident nuclear deterrent with France, moving away from US reliance.
- Deferring payments to the US and investing in European defence is suggested.
- A serious strategic reassessment of the US relationship is needed due to Trump's unreliability and the long-term dysfunctionality of US politics.
- Europe needs to rebuild its strategic industries and abandon a "global ecosystem of minimal threat" mindset.
Republican Congressman Breaks Ranks and Trump's Golf Trip
🎦 53:20-54:13⏩
- Republican Congressman Don Bacon criticizes Trump's "Catastrophic Oval Office Screaming Match", a positive sign of dissent.
- While EU leaders meet, Trump is "working hard to sort things out by jetting off tomorrow to play golf," highlighting his unseriousness.
Ukraine's Ongoing Fight and Need for Continued Support
🎦 54:13-56:27⏩
- Despite political turmoil, Ukraine is still fighting and needs drones, vehicles, and ongoing support.
- The fight is expected to continue through 2025, potentially until Russia collapses.
- Viewers are encouraged to donate to Dzyga's Paw to support Ukraine with drones.
Viewer Super Chats: Trump's Resentment and Vendetta
🎦 56:27-57:53⏩
- Super Chat from Goose Springsteen suggests Trump resents Zelenskyy for not investigating Biden, contributing to the fallout. JP and JF agree, highlighting Trump's pettiness and narcissism.
- The personal vendetta is considered a significant factor, potentially underplayed.
Fox Interview Praised and Blame Shifting Criticized
- Zelenskyy's Fox News interview is praised for his composed response after the White House meeting.
- Criticism of those blaming Zelenskyy is discussed, suggesting it often falls along party lines or is an excuse to blame Ukraine.
- The danger of pro-Ukraine individuals making excuses for Trump or calling for Zelenskyy's removal is highlighted as echoing Russian narratives and being "suicidal".
Strategic Interests Forgotten and Trump's Pro-Russia Peace Plan
- The strategic reasons for US support of Ukraine are being forgotten in the focus on the White House incident.
- Trump's peace plan is architected by Russia and aims for Ukrainian capitulation.
- Excuses for Trump are seen as aligning with Russian objectives and abandoning Ukraine's interests.
- The US approach is considered a "dead end" and a "suicide route" for Ukraine.
Narcissistic Personality Syndrome and Vance's Ideology
- Super Chat from Rick suggests Trump's narcissistic personality syndrome explains his behaviour.
- Vance's actions are seen as ideologically driven and aligned with Project 2025, making him less likely to change than Trump.
Dyslexia Theory and Trump's Cognitive Issues
- A viewer's comment suggests Trump may have dyslexia, explaining his struggles with autocues and numbers, potentially contributing to his errors and defensiveness.
- While dyslexia might be a factor, JF and JP acknowledge deeper issues beyond just dyslexia.
Trump's Desire to be Putin and the "Apprentice" Persona
- Super Chat from Rick suggests Trump doesn't care about anyone but himself and admires Putin's dictatorial power.
- JP discusses how "The Apprentice" producers created Trump's persona as a powerful businessman, which he embraced more than his presidency.
- Trump's desire to "fire people" and be a dictator is highlighted, referencing his admiration for Kim Jong-un.
Trump's Insecurity and Totalitarian Tendencies
- Trump projects power because he feels insecure and lacks inner power despite his position.
- He undermines democratic institutions and checks and balances because they limit his desired "ultimate power".
US Move Towards Authoritarianism and Information Ecosystems
- Viewer Marcus questions how long US citizens will tolerate the move towards authoritarianism under Trump and Musk.
- JP confirms a worrying trend towards authoritarianism and dismantling of democratic institutions.
- Information ecosystems and disinformation play a key role in shaping beliefs and enabling this shift.
- Trump's actions are expected to target minorities, increase chaos, and dismantle institutions.
Europe as Target and Need for Strategic Divergence
- Trump will also target Europe because he sees the EU as a competitor and a threat to his business model, seeking to "demolish" it.
- This pivot away from the EU is as significant as the pivot towards Russia.
- Europe needs to recognise this and strategically diverge from the US, taking unilateral action and moving towards strategic independence.
Europe's Military Capability and Risk of Rearmament
- Super Chat from Goose Springsteen questions Europe's ability to sustain military intervention in Ukraine without the US.
- JF disagrees, arguing that a combined European army could easily defeat Russia currently, citing Russia's weakened state and poor recruitment.
- JP agrees that Europe, especially Poland, is militarily strong enough to defeat Russia now.
- The real risk is allowing Russia time to rearm, especially if US sanctions are lifted.
Casualty Aversion and Air Power as European Strengths
- Europe's reluctance to intervene is not about capability but casualty aversion.
- Europe's air power is relatively stronger than its ground forces, suggesting potential for air intervention (though air defence may be US-reliant).
- However, the scale of troops needed for ground intervention is vast, potentially hundreds of thousands.
Vance's Ideological Extremism vs. Rubio's Discomfort and Complicity
- Vance is ideologically committed to Project 2025 and unlikely to change. Trump is more malleable.
- Rubio appeared uncomfortable in the White House meeting but tows the party line publicly, a disappointment given his past stances.
- Lindsey Graham is also seen as prioritizing proximity to power over principle.
- Rubio likely knew about the "ambush" setup beforehand.
Pivot Against EU as Key Project 2025 Goal
- The pivot towards Russia is fundamentally also a pivot against the EU, a key goal of Project 2025 and figures like Vance and Bannon.
- They see the EU as an enemy and competitor, not an ally, reflecting Trump's zero-sum worldview.
- The EU needs to understand this and factor it into their strategies, becoming more robust and independent from the US.
Europe Must "Go Hard" and Embrace Strategic Independence
- Europe needs to "go hard or go home", fully committing to strategic independence and support for Ukraine.
- This means "biting the bullet" and going "full on" for European independence from the US.
- This could be a massive "own goal" for Trump, forcing Europe to become stronger and more self-reliant.
Long-Term Threat from Russia and Need for European Deterrence
- Even if Trump is temporary, the threat from Russia is long-term.
- Europe needs to build its own munitions capacity to deter Russia, anticipating the worst scenarios, including Putin's potential successors.
- Past attempts to "normalize the abnormal" and hope for the best have been insufficient.
Window of Opportunity and Risk of US Sanctions Removal
- The pendulum may be swinging back in Russia's favour due to political shifts, but their military and economy remain weak.
- Supporting Ukraine through 2025 offers a chance for Russian collapse on the battlefield.
- The biggest threat is Trump lifting US sanctions, which would undermine European sanctions and give US businesses a competitive advantage over EU businesses.
"Disgusting" and "Despicable" and Future of Europe
- Viewer asks for alternative words to describe yesterday's events beyond "disgusting" and "despicable". JP suggests "fustercluck" (corrected to "clusterf*") and "crossroads for humanity".
- The future of Europe and the US, and Europe's potential to unite and become a major force, are at stake.
- Tomorrow's meetings are crucial for determining the future direction of the war.
Inflection Point and Need for European Mobilization
- JP sees this as an inflection point. If Europe "hits the snooze button" tomorrow, they are in "big trouble".
- Positive signs would be European mobilization of resources and abandoning reliance on a US backstop that is no longer reliable.
- Action is needed, or the trajectory is "very, very worrying".
Pub Quiz and Cognitive Load due to MS
- JP is going to a pub quiz. He reflects on his past quiz prowess and how multiple sclerosis has affected his cognitive abilities, particularly memory and recall in unstructured environments.
- He notes that he still functions well in structured, stimulating environments like the podcast but struggles with spontaneous recall.
COVID and Age-Related Memory Issues and Listener Support
- JF jokes about age-related memory issues and COVID's impact on recall, noting improvement since starting the podcast.
- Thanks are given to viewers for super chats and memberships, and specifically to Rob and Lion Dust for their support.
Dzyga's Paw Charity and "Lancing a Boil" Analogy
- Viewers are reminded to donate to Dzyga's Paw, a Ukrainian charity.
- JP uses the analogy of "lancing a boil" to suggest that the White House meeting, while painful, may have clarified the situation and allowed for a clearer path forward.
- Doris analogies will be used more in future.
Wrap up
- JP and JF thank viewers, express solidarity with Ukraine ("Slava Ukrainii"), and encourage everyone to "stick together".
- Video ends with thanks and farewells.