US Election Extra: Polls & Campaigns - Harris Up?
Table of Contents 📖
"After the past five years, after the massive economic implosion in 2020, after everything we went through, after all the uncertainty, the stimulus spending, job losses, and layoffs, after all of the inflation that came from it, we're finally in a good place with solid GDP growth, low unemployment...The American economy is doing the best in the world compared to comparable economies...So why change that? Why fix something that's not broken?"
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:16⏩
Jonathan introduces the topic for this US Election Special - a look at the polls and campaigns and whether Kamala Harris is ahead
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Campaign Strategy
🎦 00:16-02:58⏩
Jonathan discusses how to win an election:
- Candidates must mobilise their base and enthuse undecided voters.
- Trump's divisive rhetoric has alienated voters, particularly in Pennsylvania and Florida, while Harris's Ellipse speech was well-received.
- Jonathan believes Trump's approach mainly appeals to his existing base, while Harris is more effective at attracting undecided voters.
Republican Endorsements for Harris
🎦 02:58-07:04⏩
Jonathan highlights prominent Republicans endorsing Kamala Harris:
- Former New Hampshire Senator Gordon Humphrey
- Barbara Pierce Bush, daughter of former President George W. Bush
- Former California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (who Jonathan recommends watching on "The Rest is Politics" podcast).
- Former Missouri Republican Senator Jack Danforth (who regrets supporting Senator Josh Hawley)
Jonathan notes that such endorsements could signal a permission structure for Republicans to vote for Harris. He ponders if this trend is reciprocated, with Democrats endorsing Trump, but observes no evidence of this. Anecdotally, Jonathan has heard of Republicans voting Democrat, but not the reverse.
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Union Support and Early Voting Trends
🎦 07:04-13:27⏩
Jonathan examines potential boosts for Harris's voter turnout:
- Strong union support in key battleground states, particularly among non-college-educated, pro-union voters (a demographic Harris needs to win back).
- Early voting data suggesting a significant lead for Harris, contradicting Trump's claims of a Republican advantage.
- Jonathan cites various polls indicating Harris's early voting lead, especially among those who have already voted.
Jonathan questions whether early voting reflects a shift in voter preference or simply a change in voting habits (with high-propensity voters casting ballots earlier). He emphasises the need to mobilize low-propensity voters to secure victory.
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Motivating the Voters
🎦 13:27-18:45⏩
Jonathan explores factors potentially motivating voters:
- Fear of threats to democracy fuelled by Trump's rhetoric, including his suggestion of revoking licenses from critical news media.
- Concerns over reproductive rights, particularly among women, following the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
- Jonathan believes these issues could significantly impact voter turnout, potentially leading to a surge in support for Harris, particularly among women.
He argues that Trump's focus on his base won't be enough to overcome his perceived ceiling of 46-47% of the vote, while Harris's more inclusive approach might resonate with a broader range of voters.
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Examining the Gender Divide and Early Voting Data
🎦 18:45-22:59⏩
Jonathan analyzes early voting data and the gender divide among voters:
- He presents data suggesting a significant gender gap in early voting, with women favoring Harris across several swing states.
- He highlights contrasting poll results, with CNN exit polls indicating a strong lead for Harris while Atlas Intel suggests a Trump advantage.
- Jonathan expresses scepticism about Atlas Intel's credibility, noting criticism from pollster Dave Trotter. He questions the discrepancy between these polls and suggests potential inaccuracies in Atlas Intel's data.
Jonathan grapples with the conflicting information and acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding the election outcome.
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Tech Bros, Licensing and the Economy
🎦 22:59-29:27⏩
Jonathan discusses potential implications of a Trump victory, focusing on his relationship with tech figures and the economy:
- He raises concerns about Elon Musk and David Sacks advocating for changes to broadcast licensing, suggesting a potential threat to media freedom if Trump wins.
- Jonathan questions the motives of tech billionaires like Musk, who advocate for austerity while enjoying immense wealth.
- Jonathan points out the current strength of the US economy, arguing against disrupting a well-performing system. He highlights positive economic indicators like low unemployment, low inflation and solid GDP growth under the current administration.
- He challenges the perception of economic hardship, arguing that wage growth has outpaced inflation.
Jonathan suggests that the economy could be a deciding factor for voters, questioning why anyone would vote for change during a period of economic prosperity.
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Trump's Behaviour and Rhetoric
🎦 29:27-39:00⏩
Jonathan examines Trump's behaviour and rhetoric and their potential impact on the election:
- He highlights Trump's threats to fire those who hold him accountable, such as Jack Smith, raising concerns about potential abuse of power.
- Jonathan criticizes the divisive rhetoric employed by Trump and his supporters, including offensive remarks targeting Kamala Harris's ethnicity and derogatory comments about women.
- He analyzes a Turning Point conference speech by Tucker Carlson, arguing that his comments about "spanking little girls," even if metaphorical, could alienate female voters.
Jonathan questions the strategic wisdom of such rhetoric, particularly in attracting undecided voters.
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Offensive Remarks and the Latino Vote
🎦 39:00-44:56⏩
Jonathan focuses on the potential fallout from offensive remarks made at a Trump rally:
- He highlights a supercut of controversial moments from the rally, including derogatory comments about Latinos and immigrants.
- He questions if such rhetoric will attract or repel voters, particularly within the Latino community.
- Jonathan reveals that the Trump campaign allegedly edited comedian Tony Hinchcliffe's routine, removing a more offensive joke while retaining insults directed at Puerto Ricans.
This revelation raises concerns about the campaign's judgment and its willingness to condone offensive rhetoric.
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Nicky Jam, Jennifer Lopez and the Importance of the Latino Vote
🎦 44:56-47:21⏩
Jonathan discusses the impact of the offensive remarks on the Latino vote:
- He shares that Puerto Rican artist Nicky Jam, initially supportive of Trump, has withdrawn his endorsement due to the offensive remarks made about Puerto Ricans.
- He highlights Jennifer Lopez's endorsement of Kamala Harris, emphasizing her Puerto Rican heritage and her message of unity and respect.
Jonathan suggests that the offensive rhetoric from the Trump campaign could backfire, pushing Latino voters away.
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Healthcare, Information Bubbles and Viewer Comments
🎦 47:21-53:27⏩
Jonathan touches upon healthcare and addresses viewer comments about the election:
- He criticizes the potential repeal of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), arguing that it would be an unpopular move, especially among low-information voters.
- He highlights viewer comments about information bubbles and the challenges of reaching people entrenched in their own realities.
Jonathan reads comments from "HiHiCat" and "Infamous Engine," highlighting the lack of awareness among some voters about Trump's behaviour and the potential for people to change their political views.
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Potential for an Undercounting and Concluding Thoughts
🎦 53:27-56:02⏩
Jonathan speculates on the potential for an undercounting of certain voter demographics in the polls:
- Based on anecdotal evidence and the data he has examined, Jonathan believes there may be an undercounting of Republican voters switching to Harris, non-party affiliates and independents leaning towards Harris, particularly in states like North Carolina.
- He acknowledges that this is speculative but finds it a more plausible scenario than a Trump landslide.
Jonathan concludes that while he believes Harris will likely win, he predicts a potentially more comfortable victory than polls suggest, driven by a possible surge in female and young voter turnout.
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Wrap up
🎦 56:02-56:19⏩
Jonathan signs off, encouraging viewers to share their thoughts and reminding them to take care.
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