Ukraine War BUMPER Update: Pt 1 - Overnight & Other News: Massive Drone/Missile Barrages
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Table of Contents 📖
Hello Team
🎦 00:00-00:30⏩
Jonathan welcomes viewers to another ATP Geopolitics update, noting the exhaustion from the intense and "crazy time" in the ongoing war. He humorously wishes for everyone to "take a chill pill" amidst the "shenanigans" of events.
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🪦 DISCLAIMER FOR GENERAL STAFF LOSSES DATA
- These are real people with real lives and real families who love them. Don’t let the numbers sap your humanity.
- These numbers probably aren’t accurate but they’re the best we have and we don’t need them to be accurate to be indicative of patterns of activity.
- All losses are estimates. Losses cannot be counted with accuracy because of the conditions on the ground.
- Both sides would see it to be of their advantage to minimize their own losses maximize the other side’s losses.
- Neither side releases their losses but we have enough transparency from the Ukrainian side to have confidence in they are indicative.
- Personnel losses are hard to count. If a soldier gets injured, heals up, and returns to the front line only to get injured again, is that one loss or two? Also, how to deal with losses from PMC’s or soldiers fighting with RF from occupied territories?
- Equipment losses are hard to count. If an AA complex involves several parts and one part gets disabled, is that a loss, or a fraction of a loss? If a tank gets disabled, repaired, back into the fight, then disabled again, is that one lost tank or two?
- All recorded losses are vulnerable to multiple reporting. We have already seen numerous cases of multiple drones in the air reporting the same loss from different angles as multiple engagements.
- Losses are not always reported on the same day they occurred. It is frequent that drone losses are reported at least 24 hours after other terrestrial equipment losses. Certain losses may not be reported for days or weeks for military intelligence reasons.
Ukrainian General Staff Figures & Andrew Perpetua's Analysis of Russian Personnel Losses
🎦 00:58-05:57⏩
Jonathan presents the latest Ukrainian General Staff figures for Russian losses:
- Personnel: 1,160 lost, a comfortable return to over the 1,000 mark.
- Equipment: 2 tanks, 5 AFVs (indicating a lack of such equipment), 101 vehicles (including motorbikes), 44 artillery systems (double the daily average), 0 MLRS, 3 anti-aircraft warfare systems (a good haul).
Jonathan then discusses Andrew Perpetua's analysis of Russian KIA numbers:
- Current KIA rates are significantly lower than the peak seen over winter (2024-2025).
- However, current rates are significantly higher than those observed in the previous year (2023-2024).
- Andrew's visual tracking of killed Russian soldiers from daily videos shows a current average of 85 per day, down from a peak of 100-150 per day, but still higher than the initial 50-70 per day.
- Jonathan notes that this data from Andrew Perpetua, as macabre as it is, tracks well with the Ukrainian General Staff figures, providing corroboration.
Ukrainian Counterattacks & Russian Struggles in Tekino (Border Area)
🎦 05:57-07:32⏩
Reports from the Russian border area around Tekino indicate a deteriorating situation for Russian forces:
- Ukrainian counterattacks have encircled Tekino, an ongoing situation.
- Harsh messages from Russian sources admit that "Ukrainian aviation flies as if it were at home" with "no air defence, no air cover".
- The situation is rapidly worsening, with "zero prerequisites for improvement".
- A Russian soldier's report confirms Ukrainian forces have broken through to the centre of Tekino, encircling at least two Russian companies. They are under constant attack from Ukrainian aviation, artillery, and FPV drones.
- Jonathan highlights the tragic "heroism" of wounded Russian soldiers holding positions, asserting they "shouldn't have found themselves in such a situation" and that "heroes need to be pulled out, not abandoned."
Russian Soldier's Account of High Losses & Poor Equipment on Zaporizhzhia Front
🎦 07:36-12:02⏩
Thanks to Colcode Fellow, Jonathan shares insights from a Russian volunteer soldier named Andre on the Zaporizhzhia front, specifically near Piatykatky:
- Andre describes the terrain as "tough," leading to "huge losses" if they move too fast, as "the heights are all exposed, nowhere to hide."
- Troops cannot be rotated directly to the zero line and must walk 5-7 kilometres, confirming that Ukrainian drones and artillery control this corridor.
- Andre claims that nearly all of the original 300,000 mobilised soldiers are gone, with only 20,000-30,000 remaining across the entire front. Jonathan finds this "incredible" and states it suggests most have been killed.
- He states that advances are made "with sweat and blood," not large forces, as it's "impossible to bring them in."
- Commanders "keep sending in assaults, one after another, group after group, just going in... Endlessly coming losses."
- Andre confirms that the first assault wave consists "mostly convicts" (Z stormtroopers), who take heavy losses.
- He also complains about substandard equipment, specifically that 'Racknick' vests were sold off and replaced with 'cocoons' offering lower protection, contributing to injuries and deaths.
Ukrainian FPV Drone Strikes on Russian Logistics in Holivka
🎦 12:02-12:56⏩
Jonathan shows an FPV drone video from FyberOctic in the Holivka area on the eastern front:
- The video shows multiple drones systematically hitting a Russian logistics garage, targeting vehicles and what appears to be a fuel tank.
- Jonathan expresses fascination at the efficiency, noting that relatively inexpensive drones (around $400-$500) are used to take out valuable equipment.
- He points out that while many drone videos can be "samey," he is personally fascinated by watching these drones manoeuvre to destroy targets.
Brave1 Innovation: 100kg Drone Munition Tested by Ukraine
🎦 13:03-15:00⏩
Mikhail Fedorov, Ukraine's Vice Prime Minister of Innovation and Minister of Digital Transformation, reports on a new weapon from "Brave1":
- Brave1 is described as a platform and "Amazon for equipment" for centralised procurement and access to new innovations.
- A new type of weapon, a munition weighing "more than 100 kilograms," was successfully tested on the front lines, destroying an enemy stronghold.
- Jonathan highlights the significance of a 100kg munition, comparing it to a TM-62 anti-tank mine (9-10kg). He presumes it's delivered by an aerial drone or a UGV.
- He contrasts the cost-effectiveness, noting that a 100kg drone munition could deliver significant destructive power at a fraction of the cost of a multi-million dollar Iskander missile (which carries 480kg).
- This innovation suggests Ukraine is developing new, cost-effective methods of attack, potentially allowing for multiple smaller, strategically placed explosions rather than one large one.
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Iskander Missile Facilities in Bryansk & Belgorod Railway Sabotage
🎦 15:01-19:11⏩
Jonathan discusses Ukrainian strikes within Russia:
- Iskander Missile Facilities: Ukraine claimed to have struck Iskander facilities in Bryansk, which were reportedly loaded and ready for attack. One facility was "completely destroyed" with ammunition detonation, and two others sustained significant damage. This strike reportedly cost Russia "tens of millions of dollars."
- Bryansk Airfield: There was a massive explosion at Bryansk airfield, theorised to be another Iskander site, which would have impacted Russia's ability to launch missiles last night.
- Belgorod Railway Sabotage: A diesel locomotive derailed in the Prokhorovsky district of Belgorod due to an explosive device under the rails. While there were no casualties and traffic resumed, the track was damaged, indicating continued partisan sabotage activity near the border in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk.
- Jonathan notes these strikes happened ahead of Russia's major retaliatory barrages on Ukraine.
Russian Overnight Mass Drone & Missile Barrages on Ukrainian Cities
🎦 19:12-29:59⏩
Russia launched a significant retaliatory barrage on Ukrainian cities overnight:
- Missiles: 36 cruise missiles were launched, with 30 intercepted (an "actually pretty good result"). 4 out of 6 ballistic missiles (Iskander M's) were also shot down.
- Drones: 407 drones were sent, targeting 13 cities. 367 were intercepted (199 shot down, 169 suppressed by electronic warfare). This represents a four times better interception rate for Ukraine compared to recent averages.
- Jonathan notes that while the damage was horrific, the scale of the missile attack (30-odd cruise missiles) was not the worst of the war by a long shot, suggesting that Operation Spiderweb likely had a tangible effect on Russia's ability to fire cruise missiles and strategic bombers.
- Targets: Cities hit included Kyiv, Lutsk, Ternopil, Poltava, and Chernihiv. Significant explosions were seen in Kyiv, with falling debris causing damage.
- Images and videos show apartment blocks, metal hangars, and cars damaged. Jonathan explains that collateral damage to civilian infrastructure is inevitable when hundreds of drones are launched over cities, regardless of intent or interception.
Casualties and Damage from Russian Strikes Across Ukrainian Cities
🎦 30:00-32:35⏩
The Russian strikes resulted in casualties and widespread damage:
- Kyiv: Four people were killed and over 30 injured. Tragically, three Ukrainian State Emergency Service rescuers were killed while responding to the aftermath of strikes, with nine more injured (some critically). Metro services were disrupted.
- Lutsk: Hit by 15 drones and 6 missiles, injuring 15 people. Civilian infrastructure including a furniture workshop, repair facilities, and a hotel (where Ukrainian national team athletes were staying) were damaged. Fortunately, no athletes were injured.
- Ternopil: Attacked with drones and Kalibr missiles, injuring 10 people, including five emergency service employees. Industrial facilities and infrastructure were hit, leading to electricity blackouts and harmful substances in the air.
- Jonathan observed the trajectories of missiles in videos, concluding they appeared to be cruise missiles (easier to intercept than ballistic ones) which were likely not intercepted despite defensive efforts.
Russian Missile Defenses & Accuracy of Strikes on Civilian Infrastructure
🎦 32:35-35:56⏩
Jonathan delves into the technical aspects of Russian missile attacks:
- Kh-101 Decoys: Russian Kh-101 cruise missiles are now deploying heat-seeking decoys (chaff or flares) to evade air defence missiles, a development Jonathan had previously reported.
- Precision and Collateral Damage: Despite being labelled "precision-guided munitions," Russian missiles are not always precise. Jonathan explains the concept of "circle error probable" (CEP), where even for a 300-meter CEP, 50% of hits can fall outside that range.
- He argues that Russia's lack of care for PR, ethics, and efficiency means they are content to send in large numbers of missiles, even if they hit civilian buildings. This differs from Western weapons, which aim for high precision to minimise collateral damage for both ethical and PR reasons.
- The hitting of a residential building in Lutsk could be due to the missile aiming at a vaguely nearby industrial target and simply missing its intended mark, rather than being intentionally off-course or malfunctioning.
Analysis of Limited Russian Missile Response & Impact of Operation Spiderweb
36:13-37:16⏩Jonathan reiterates his analysis of Russia's relatively small missile response:
- He notes that despite Ukraine's devastating "Operation Spiderweb" strikes on Russian bomber bases, Russia only launched a handful of ballistic missiles and under 40 cruise missiles.
- This is significant because Russia claims to have increased ballistic missile production by 60-70% and upped production of other munitions.
- Jonathan suggests that while Russia may have the missiles, they lack the planes to fire them effectively, implying Operation Spiderweb successfully reduced Russia's strategic bomber fleet's operational capacity.
Russian Blogger Calls for Nuclear Weapons After 'Worthless' Retaliation
🎦 37:17-38:44⏩
Jonathan highlights a chilling post from "Fighter Bomber," a pro-Russian blogger and pilot:
- The blogger describes Russia's retaliatory strike as "worthless" if it was meant to be a response to Ukraine's "four terrorist attacks" (strikes on Russia).
- He proposes two extreme alternatives: either Russia should "stop putting bast shoes on our C-words, and hitting them with nuclear weapons, wiping out enemy cities one by one," or at least "prohibit the formulation, 'this is our answer'" because it's embarrassing.
- Jonathan notes the scary implication that the blogger is advocating for the use of nuclear weapons because last night's conventional response was deemed "woefully inadequate."
Keith Kellogg's Daughter on Russia's Intentions Amidst Kyiv Attacks
🎦 38:44-39:33⏩
Jonathan shares a poignant exchange from Keith Kellogg's daughter, who is currently in Kyiv:
- She messages her father, the US envoy to Ukraine, describing a "loud night in Kyiv" with "explosions and gunfire in the dead of the night."
- She sarcastically but firmly states, "I get the strange feeling the Russians don't want peace."
- She argues that while Russia claims to be striking back, Ukraine's precision strikes are in response to Russia's relentless attacks.
- Jonathan praises her blunt assessment, highlighting that her direct experience in Kyiv informs her certainty that Russia is not interested in peace.
Ukrainian Drone Attacks on Russian Strategic Targets (Oil Depots, Air Bases)
🎦 39:33-47:30⏩
Ukraine launched numerous drones at targets within Russia, in contrast to Russia's attacks on cities:
- Scale: While initial claims mentioned over 400 drones, other reports suggested 170+. Regardless, a "lot of drones" were involved.
- Targets:
- Progress Plant (Mishurinsk, Tambov region): Hit, this facility produces advanced control systems for aviation and missile technology.
- Engels Oil Depot (Saratov region): Hit and on fire, with three separate tanks ablaze at different ends of the depot, making it harder for Russians to extinguish. Jonathan speculates this signals that hitting energy infrastructure is "back on the cards" for Ukraine after a pause.
- Diaghilevo Military Airfield (Ryazan region): Also hit, with powerful explosions reported.
- Bryansk Airfield: Footage shows a massive explosion. A Russian source confirmed "yet another Iskander installation has indeed been destroyed" there, with secondary detonation from rocket fuel, implying a critical blow to Russian missile capabilities.
- Jonathan also shows a video of a Ukrainian drone hitting a pylon in the Saratov-Engels area, causing a massive electrical explosion, but questions its strategic value or ease of repair.
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Military Production & Moscow Region
47:31-48:58⏩Further details on Ukrainian strikes within Russia:
- Jagilov Strategic Aviation Base: Hit, with images showing a significant explosion.
- Progress Plant (Tambov region): Another video shows the aftermath of a strike on this facility, which is crucial for producing control systems for aviation and missile technology, as well as civilian electronics and oil/gas infrastructure equipment. Jonathan deems this a "useful place to have struck."
- Podolsk (Moscow region): Ukrainian drones struck the town of Podolsk, only 35 km from Red Square. Videos show fires, though the specific target hit is unclear.
- Jonathan contrasts the outcomes: Russian drones hit apartment blocks in Kyiv, while Ukrainian drones hit strategic targets inside Russia, describing it as a "familiar pattern."
Contrasting Attack Patterns: Russia vs. Ukraine
🎦 48:59-49:17⏩
Jonathan highlights the stark difference in targeting strategies:
- Russia's attacks consistently hit civilian apartment blocks in Kyiv, as seen in abundant imagery.
- Ukraine's drones, in contrast, consistently hit strategic military and industrial targets inside Russia.
- He characterises this as a "familiar pattern," underscoring Russia's indiscriminate targeting versus Ukraine's focused approach.
Pastor Mark Burns's Changed Perspective on Ukraine & Air Defence Footage in Kyiv
🎦 49:17-51:45⏩
Jonathan praises Pastor Mark Burns, a religious advisor to Donald Trump, who visited Ukraine:
- Burns, originally aligned with the religious right, returned "a changed man" after witnessing the situation in Ukraine firsthand.
- Jonathan shows dramatic footage of air defences going off in the middle of Kyiv, right near iconic landmarks, which is "pretty incredible" and shows the reality for civilians.
- Burns's rhetoric has shifted, stating that "Russia just doesn't seem to care about human life," whether it be their own soldiers or Ukrainian citizens, a sentiment Jonathan fully supports.
Russian Deliberate Targeting of Civilian Buildings in Kharkiv
🎦 51:45-53:10⏩
Jonathan corrects a misidentified video, confirming it was from Kharkiv two nights prior, showing horrific footage of Russian strikes on residential buildings:
- The video shows a civilian apartment block being hit, which Jonathan stresses is a common occurrence.
- Richard Woodruff's commentary on the footage is highlighted: "How many military bases can you count being hit by Russian kamikaze drones? Now, how many residential apartment complexes can you see being hit? That's the difference between them and us. They are brain dead scum, genocidal scum."
- Jonathan fully agrees with Woodruff's salient point that "the Russians do not care for civilian life and they don't care for adhering to international rules of war."
Ukrainian Helicopter Interception & Russian Destruction of Kherson Administrative Building (War Crime)
🎦 53:10-54:57⏩
Jonathan covers two significant events:
- Helicopter Interception: Footage from a couple of days prior shows a Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter (with its nose-mounted cannon) shooting down a Russian Shahid-136 kamikaze drone over Ukraine, described as "pretty cool footage."
- Kherson Administrative Building: Jonathan reports that the administrative building in Kherson was completely destroyed by "two strikes with aerial bombs," a "deliberate targeting" he had reported on the previous day.
- President Zelensky condemned this attack, stating there was "no military sense whatsoever" and that Russians are "openly destroying life." He calls them "absolutely deranged creatures" and stresses the need for international forces to stop them, lamenting that "the world clearly sees who exactly has such force, yet still isn't using it for the sake of peace."
- Jonathan firmly agrees with Zelensky, reiterating that this was an "accurate, precision, guided guide bombing" of a civilian "council building," making it a clear "war crime."
Humour & Kremlin's Hypocrisy Regarding Airfield Attacks
🎦 55:08-56:12⏩
Jonathan shares some lighter, yet poignant, observations:
- He shows a humorous "hobbyist scale model" of a Tu-95 bomber reduced to "dust" after recent Ukrainian drone strikes on air bases, playing on his frequent comment that there's nothing left to salvage.
- Jonathan highlights the Kremlin's hypocrisy, citing Interfax (Russian state media) reporting that "the Kremlin would like the world community to strongly condemn Ukraine's attacks on Russian airfields."
- He mockingly responds that the world, "apart from the United States" (referring to the Trump administration), is generally celebrating these strikes, saying, "yay, this is awesome, thank you very much, that's what you deserve, you bastards." He concludes by stating, "no, we're not going to strongly condemn it, you bunch of muppets."
Russian Coast Guard Sailors Forced into Assault Units
🎦 56:12-58:14⏩
Jonathan reports on a concerning development within the Russian military:
- Russian Coast Guard sailors are reportedly being transferred to assault units in Ukraine, according to their relatives.
- The mother of one sailor, Ivan Krichny, appealed to Russian authorities, stating that Ivan and 15 others were moved "without warning, without official documentation or explanations."
- She claims they were told they were "troublemakers," despite her son having received commendations and awards.
- Jonathan notes it's unclear if this is due to manpower shortages or as a form of punishment, but the mother's quote highlights the injustice: "All the murderers are walking around, and those who are doing their duty normally, conscientiously, were just thrown into the training ground."
Ukrainian Military Intelligence Operations in Mali Against Russian-Backed Forces
🎦 58:43-01:00:06⏩
African media reports indicate Ukrainian military intelligence (GUR) activity in Mali:
- Ukrainian operatives are reportedly training and arming attackers and directly participating in field operations against Malian junta forces, which are backed by Russia (Wagner Group).
- These attacks have led to over 100 Malian soldiers killed and reports of Russian advisors being killed.
- Jonathan justifies this as Ukraine's effort to disrupt Russia's income from operations in Africa, effectively cutting off "blood money" that fuels Russia's war effort.
Potential Telegram Ban in Russia
🎦 01:00:06-01:00:18⏩
Jonathan briefly mentions a potential development in Russia's information control:
- Telegram, a popular messaging app, may face a ban in Russia in the coming months.
- This follows Putin's order for the government to integrate public services into a new domestic messaging app, designed to resemble Telegram.
US Politics: Trump's Comments & Potential for Renewed Ukraine Aid
🎦 01:00:19-01:03:11⏩
Jonathan discusses the interplay of US politics and Ukraine aid:
- He criticises Donald Trump's comparison of the Ukraine war to "a crazy fight between two little kids in a park," adding that "sometimes you need to let them fight a bit before you pull them apart," calling Trump "a complete fool."
- Friedrich Merz, a German politician, met with Trump and reported that both favoured stopping the war soon, but Trump made no promises of pressuring Russia or concrete commitments for weapons/sanctions.
- Jonathan expresses hope that the recent "fracas" between Elon Musk and Donald Trump (linking Trump to Jeffrey Epstein) could be a "permission structure" for Republican senators to deviate from Trump's agenda.
- This could potentially allow the Lindsey Graham-Blumenthal bill (providing aid to Ukraine) to pass Congress, as it's controversial on its own merits for some Republicans. This is Jonathan's "fingers-crossed scenario" for Ukraine benefiting from chaos.
Miscellaneous: 'Free Azov' Support, Russian Cruelty, & War's Environmental Impact
🎦 01:03:11-01:05:00⏩
Jonathan concludes with a few diverse updates:
- Free Azov: He shares an image of "Free Azov" graffiti on an Amsterdam skate park, celebrating the ongoing support for the many Azovstal defenders still held as POWs.
- Russian Cruelty (Dead Bunnies): He highlights a horrific report from Dimko Shvetenko (whom he hopes to interview) that Russians are "stuffing dead bunnies with explosives and dropping them on Ukrainian positions." Jonathan finds this "horror" with "no functional reason" other than to display extreme cruelty.
- Environmental Impact (Bird Nests): On a slightly "nicer level," he notes that birds near the front lines are now weaving their nests using fibre optic cabling due to the abundance of war debris, a photo shared by the 12th Azov Brigade.
Wrap up
🎦 01:05:00-01:05:00⏩
Jonathan thanks the viewers for watching the video.
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